2 Comments

  • Bart Vargas

    July 16, 2018

    is there a link to the study of yours that Abby refers to in the pod (% of registered dems in midwest voting Trump)? thanks in advance.

    Reply
    • Ward Chanley

      July 16, 2018

      Hi Bart,

      The Twitter thread Abby was referring to is here:
      https://twitter.com/wchanley/status/1012726935284277249

      The data I’m using is from CNN (the exit polling), and Politico (for the 2016 state-by-state vote):
      https://www.cnn.com/election/2016/results/exit-polls

      https://www.politico.com/mapdata-2016/2016-election/results/map/president/

      If you don’t want to go through the Twitter thread, here’s the condensed version of my argument:

      Exit Polling (CNN):
      9% of Democrats in Michigan voted for Trump
      7% of Democrats in Wisconsin voted for Trump
      11% of Democrats in Pennsylvania voted for Trump

      Politico:
      Wis: 47.9% Trump, 46.9% Clinton, Stein 1.1%
      Mich: 47.6% Trump, 47.3% Clinton, Stein 1.1%
      Penn: 48.8% Trump, 47.6% Clinton, Stein 0.8%

      There were about 9x as many crossover Democrats voting for Trump than there were Jill Stein votes in total. But, of course, we never talk about the Dems running an awful campaign that ceded 2012 Obama voters to the Republican, so let’s blame Green Party voters, Jill Stein, and Susan Sarandon instead.

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